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Monday, December 23, 2024

Report challenges accuracy of national debt impacts under Trump and Biden

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Jodey Arrington - Chairman of the House Budget Committee | Official U.S. House headshot

Jodey Arrington - Chairman of the House Budget Committee | Official U.S. House headshot

WASHINGTON, D.C. – This week, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) released a report entitled, “Trump and Biden: The National Debt.” The CRFB’s report attempts to compare the fiscal impact of the policies of the current administration with those of the previous administration but fails to accurately capture the total cost incurred by both presidencies.

The CRFB states that the Biden Administration increased the federal deficit by just $4.3 trillion. In reality, the Biden Administration has increased the federal deficit by $11.6 trillion over three years and six months.

On President Biden's executive actions, CRFB claims these have added just $1.2 trillion to ten-year debt projections. However, since taking office, President Biden has proposed and implemented executive actions costing taxpayers over $2 trillion. For instance:

- Thrifty Food Plan Overhaul (August 2021): Costing $300 billion.

- Government Contractor Rule (November 2021): Costing $3 billion.

The American Rescue Plan Act was portrayed as a COVID relief package in its entirety by CRFB. While it is included on President Biden’s ledger accurately, only about 1 percent of this package goes toward COVID vaccines and 5 percent towards public health needs related to the pandemic. Instead, this spending contributed to economic growth but also led to significant inflationary pressures.

According to CBO estimates, President Biden’s enacted legislation increased deficit projections by a total of $4.8 trillion over ten years, contrary to CRFB's claim of $3 trillion.

Interest costs have surged due to economic policies under President Biden's administration not accounted for in CRFB’s calculations. Since taking office, interest rate hikes have increased projected net interest costs by $4.8 trillion over ten years.

Regarding President Trump’s policies:

- The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reportedly increased federal debt by $1.9 trillion; however, federal revenues rose more than initially projected post-enactment.

- Ending ACA cost-sharing reduction payments allegedly raised premiums significantly; however, premium increases were attributed to mandates imposed before Trump took office.

- A rule restricting prescription drug rebates was delayed and ultimately repealed under President Biden yet was still counted in Trump's fiscal impacts by CRFB.

The analysis presented by CRFB underestimates contributions from President Biden’s policies while inflating those from President Trump’s policies due to methodological inconsistencies and omissions regarding broader economic consequences such as higher interest rates and inflation.

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