Lubbock Times

University of Texas researchers conducted a modeling study surrounding 22 different scenarios for Lubbock County involving COVID-19 outbreaks in Texas metropolitan areas. 

The study helps cities in Texas plan and project cases, possible deaths, possible hospitalizations, and more under five separate social distancing scenarios. Researchers had explained that these numbers are only projections and not actual numbers. They also stated that these scenarios, which run through the middle of August, were put in place to help gauge the different impacts of social distancing in different areas or cities. 

There were different scenarios that ran with no social distancing; with no social distancing with schools closed; and with 50, 75, and 90 percent non-household contact and schools closed. 

In Lubbock, the worst-case scenario's numbers would peak for one week in mid-May to about 60,000 and then drop just as fast as it rose. This scenario was based on no social distancing with schools closed. It is said that if the community of Lubbock follows 75 percent of the social distancing executive order, there would not be a peak until the end of July. And at that time, only 20,000 cases would pop up in this scenario.

Another part of the scenario looks at the total number of deaths that Lubbock would see. These cumulative deaths would have a devastating impact on the community. If only schools were closed and a social distancing order was not followed, there would be over 1,000 COVID-19 deaths in Lubbock. Those deaths would all happen by the end of August. Also projected in the report is that a 75 percent reduction in any and all non-household contact would bring the death total down to only 500 in Lubbock. That cuts the total number of deaths in half by 50 percent.